| NFL - 4th and 10 |
| "Straight Up" versus "The Spread"-And Picks This Week |
| by Philip D. Gibbons |
| One of the dirty little secrets of NFL football journalism and broadcasting is the propensity for so-called experts to predict outright winners of games as opposed to making predictions incorporating the point spread. Last week this column debuted with a reasonable 9-5 picking outright winners, but a woeful 3-9-2 against the spread. Honestly, my grandmother living in a convalescent home can pick games straight up. So, chastened by the harsh realities of NFL parity and mathematical unpredictability, Fan Man presses on with another week of picks and comments for “entertainment purposes only”. |
Tampa Bay at New England(-4.5)-Sub forty degree temperature and healing Patriots don’t bode well for Bucs on the road. Patriots 24, Bucs 17
Kansas City at New York(-3)-Giants barely escaped a season ruining loss in Philly but the good news is that Giant kicker Jay Feely’s bout with polio seems to be over. Take the home Giants over a Chiefs team which is 3-4 straight up on the road. Giants 24, Chiefs 20
Denver at Buffalo(+9)-Denver can clinch the division while Buffalo gets closer to finishing another season in hell. Broncos are 8-2 against the line while Buffalo might not even show up. Broncos 28, Bills 10
Arizona at Houston(+1.5)-Cardinals are at least competitive while Houston enmeshed in a Bataan death march season. This week’s Get a Life Bowl should allow Cardinals a rare road win. Cards 17, Texans 14
Carolina at New Orleans(+9)-Saints season hits rock bottom as Aaron Brooks sits in favor of Todd Bouman. Todd Bouman? Carolina needs the win and has covered four straight as visitor in this series. Panthers 27, Saints 13
Dallas at Washington(-3)-Both teams desperate for a win in a series that traditionally favors the Cowboys. Dallas had covered seven in a row before the Redskins ended the streak with a Monday night miracle win earlier this season. Faint Redskin playoff hopes end this week in a game that will go down to the wire. Cowboys 20, Redskins 17
Jets at Miami(-9)-Jets got a rare 2005 win over a comatose Raider squad which still can’t disguise the fact that the Jets are not a very good team. Reluctant to lay so many points but Dolphin D should completely stifle the Jets and get Miami back to respectability. Dolphins 24, Jets 9
Pittsburgh at Minnesota(+3)-Viking Love Boat squad now resembling the battleship Bismarck with six straight wins. This is the first real test they have had in a while against a solid playoff team. The shadow of actual indictments involving early season antics may also hang over Minnesota. Steelers 28, Vikings 20
San Diego at Indianapolis(-8)-Only real suspense for the Colts last week was Peyton Manning tweaking his knee and falling down. With the Charger season on the line, have to believe they will show up with maximum effort that just falls short. Take the points, sit back and hope not to get run over by a truck. Colts 31, Chargers 27
Seattle at Tennessee(+7.5)-Seattle cruising towards best record in the NFC while Tennessee cruising toward oblivion. Seahawks should take care of business against a listless Titan team. Seattle 24, Titans 6
San Francisco at Jacksonville(-16)-Whether it’s sixteen or one hundred and sixteen points, just not going to take the worst 49er team in franchise history. Jaguar backup David Garrard has actually been pretty good behind injured Leftwich. Give the points against Frisco who continues to be dreadful on the road. Jaguars 31, 49ers 6
Cincinnati at Detroit(+8.5)-Bengals let down at home last week after big win over the Steelers. Lions have been reasonable with interim coach Jauron. Bengals are unbeaten on the road this season against the line and should be able to handle Detroit rather easily. Bengals 27, Lions 13
Cleveland at Oakland(-3)-The Tuiasosopo era in Oakland lasts exactly one game as Kerry Collins comes off the bench. Raiders are one out of their last six against the spread while Browns seemed to have found a good young quarterback in Charlie Frye. Browns 24, Raiders 17
Philadelphia at St. Louis(-3)-Eagles played one of the more memorable meaningless games in recent memory with overtime loss to the Giants. With no signs of quitting they should keep it close against a Rams team with a Harvard quarterback coming off a five interception game. Rams 17, Eagles 16
Atlanta at Chicago(-3)-The Falcons haven’t beaten a team over .500 since the first week in October while the Bears will be getting back some key players. Mike Vick coming in nicked up against a tough Bears defense. Take the home team in a tight ballgame. Bears 21, Falcons 17
Green Bay at Baltimore(-3.5)-Imagine the complaining within the Monday Night booth with Madden and Michaels getting stuck with this dog. How long before Madden starts waxing rhapsodically about Blue crabs and barbecue? Probably in the second quarter. Ravens 13, Packers 12.
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