| Commentary & Analysis |
| Bush’s Approval Ratings Aren’t as Bad as You think |
| by Rajtman Freedlander |
| President Bush's low approval ratings have the been the subject of many media stories, not to mention elation on the part of the Democrats, and increasing concern from Republicans. Is it as good, or as bad, as it sounds? |
The President’s approval ratings currently come in at around 35-43% depending on the question, the pollster and the sample. A year after re-election, that isn't good. And the damage seems to spread across all the "approval" questions, not just one. In addition to asking people if they approve/disapprove of the job the President is doing, pollsters also ask about his integrity, leaderships ability, and the direction the country is going (often called the "right track-wrong track" questions.) Generally President' are unhappy when any of their approval numbers are lower than 50%. And the party probably doesn’t enjoy approval numbers lower than the President’s margin of victory in the last election. But still, it isn't as bad as some of the recent numbers would suggest.
In elections, it's all about the swing voter -- the independent. For the same reasons, the last decade on the Supreme Court has been all about Sandra day O'Connor. But for the President now, it's about holding on to the base. Remember, Democrats really don't like this President. Independents, who broke just Republican enough to win the 2004 election for Bush, are swinging the other way right now. This isn't surprising because like anyone else, they can see blood in the water. By any objective standard (and in that one would usually exclude the White House Press Secretary, the President and his surrogates, and maybe opposition leaders, too) the President is having a terrible year. - The White House denied aides were involved in a leak, and suggested anyone involved would be fired. Aides are clearly involved, in one way or another, and no one got fired. (Libby was allowed to resign. Even Toby, the leaker on the West Wing, actually got fired.)
- The war in Iraq, or the aftermath of the War, is a constant, grinding strain on the administration and the national psyche.
- Lobbyists with links to the administration are under indictment or investigation.<THE industry.<li oil U.S. the trust little how people reminded prices gas in spike>The President told Michael Brown he was doing a "heckuva job." And he did it in front of TV cameras.
- The Harriet Miers nomination pleased no one, not even (I bet) Harriet Miers.
I think it is safe to say that virtually no one who identifies as a Democrat would say the President is doing a good job. but with that much blood in the water, we shouldn't be too surprised that people who call themselves Independents -- who at the very least don't trust politicians or like party labels to identify as Republicans, even if they are -- aren't giving this President very high marks.
Under these circumstances, the really impressive thing about the poll numbers is that they aren't worse. No matter how you slice the various questions that make up "approval" of the President, the job he is doing, his character, and the direction of the country on his watch, 35-40% of the country still thinks he's okay. They are, and have always been, his base. And they haven't gone anywhere.
Remember President Nixon's resignation speech? He didn't say he was resigning because he was about to get impeached, or because the Court's had gone against him, or because the Democrats were out to get him. He said: In all the decisions I have made in my public life, I have always tried to do what was best for the Nation. Throughout the long and difficult period of Watergate, I have felt it was my duty to persevere, to make every possible effort to complete the term of office to which you elected me.
In the past few days, however, it has become evident to me that I no longer have a strong enough political base in the Congress to justify continuing that effort. (emphasis added) If this president's base -- in Congress or in the polls, starts to desert him, then you might be able to start talking about irretrievable losses, a downward spiral which cannot be turned around. That could still happen if . . . Alito turns out to belong to Planned Parenthood? If the President angers neo-conservatives by changing course in Iraq? It could happen, but for now the base is staying put. Come hell and high water, they are still sticking with their man. For now. |
|
